The fact that Justin Verlander is a small favorite tells me they are expecting a very well pitched low scoring game. Verlander has owned the A's posting a 1.37 ERA over the last 3 years against them not including his post season dominance from a year ago. He's held them to 89 AB, .213 and a .541 OPS yet he's only a -118 favorite? Maybe because the A's are on fire, but we saw signs of their bats cooling off last night and it will surely happen today against Verlander.
On the other side we have Brett Anderson who has pitched well only allowing 1 ER at home in 2 career starts vs. the Tigers in Oakland and both of those went under the total. Verlanders last 7 starts in Oakland have gone under the total 6 times and he's under 9 of his last 11 overall starts against them. The under is also 20-6-5 in the Tigers last 31 road games with a total between 7-8.5 runs while Oakland is under 40-19-2 in thier last 61 home games vs. a RH starter. I fully expect a low scoring game here with the A's pulling off a win with their great back end bullpen which has a 1.80 ERA.
Are the Marlins a MLB team? You could have fooled me and they'll be sending their soon to be ace to the mound on Saturday night in Jose Fernandez who has electrifying stuff. However, he's young and they will not stretch him and the Phillies veteran line up know this. Expect the Phillies to make him work so they can get into that bullpen which posts a 6.07 ERA this year. I don't expect Fernandez to pitch more than 5 innings again. The Phillies have had a lot of success vs. RHP this year scoring 5.75 runs per 9. Miami on the other hand has a .138 average and is scoring 0.73 runs per 9 at home this year. They'll go up against Cole Hamels who should be a bit angry after his two first starts.
Hamels has never had 3 games in a row with 4 ER or more in his entire career. He's had just 1 2 game stretch of 4 ER or more in back to back games not counting his first two starts this year over the last 3 years. I fully expect him to bounce back today against the Marlins who he has 2.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. He pitched well in the Marlins new park with a 1.57 ERA over 3 starts last year and should be motivated going up against Fernandez. He also won't have to face Stanton who is doubtful and MOrrison and Kotchman who have also had success against him are also out of the line up. Hamels had a 0.95 ERA in the spring and all of his pitches are at his normal speeds so all signs point to him just being a bit off his game. I expect him to fully dominate here on Saturday night. Phillies are 17-5 in his last 22 road starts as a favorite -110 to -150 while the Marlins are 6-21 in their last 27 vs. a LH starter. We are getting great value at this price.
